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Comparison Of Two Demographic Views

Introduction

The link between poverty and population growth is a highly debatable issue. One school of thought puts forward the view that high population growth is a cause rather than an effect of poor economic development. Adherents to this view will argue that the prevailing macro economic structures and policies within any one nation will be impeded by these negative demographic trends. On the other hand, some people adhere to the converse argument; that poor economies cause high population increases. These are the underlying issues in the two views expressed by Srinivasan (1992) and World Bank (1984). The essay shall attempt to compare the differences and similarities between these latter views in order to come up with a sound conclusion at the end of it all.

Comparison

In the first argument put forward by the World Bank, there is an attempt to link high population growth rate to macroeconomic and sectoral policies in that the former impedes the latter. This is quite similar to the view put forward by Srinivasan because he asserts that low fertility rates can be linked to improved public expenditure. Public expenditure on education and health are direct indicators of macroeconomic policies and one can therefore conclude that the two arguments concur with one another. (CIDA, 1987)

It is a known fact that high population growth rates require excess supply of natural resources. But since resources are rarely found in excess, it is likely that they will become scarce. Scarcity causes members of the population to demand more from their government in terms of financial gains. When population growth rates soar, chances are that there will be huge inequality between inhabitants and this is likely to spark off some sort of conflicts between them. As a result, such countries may be characterized by intense civil unrest. Countries like Sierra Leone and Somali testify to such an argument. The final result of these conflicts is that the economy is ruined. All the macroeconomic and sectoral policies will also be undermined too.

Demographic behavior is mainly determined by external forces. Some of them include;

• Cultural patterns
• Social organization
• Economic forces

The argument put forward by Srinivasan is that bad economic policies cause poverty. This is also an argument in the statement made by the World Bank. The main link behind these two standpoints is the fact that many countries associated with high population growth rates are the developing countries. These countries are simply trying to embrace development in the best way they know how. Consequently, many parents are beginning to see the benefits of education. This means that such families will need to ensure quality upbringing of the girl child. There is a need to shift from the traditional view point of valuing many children (because this undermines parent's abilities to educate them) to valuing fewer children. Consequently, societies with higher population growth rates are more prone to educational problems as compared to societies with lower population. Eventually, this now translates to selectivity. More families may decide to choose some of their children over others in order to cover educational costs. This is the reason why the education of the girl child is likely to decrease in high population growth rate areas. (World Bank, 1992) Traditionally, such economies would favor high fertility rates because this would imply more labor for the family and also greater sources of wealth through dowry payments. However, in the modern world, this view no longer holds water because larger family sizes undermine educational quality.

Srinivasan also talks about the latter effect in relation to health structures. This is something that can also be seen in the statement made by World Bank since they are claiming that high population growth can undermine the economy.

The latter argument is founded on the assumption that children are the ultimate victims of high population growth rates. This means that most societies characterized by high fertility rates/ high population growth rates also have poor spacing between their children and usually register higher cases of unwanted pregnancy. The two authors above hold similar views when it comes to this issue because such families will have lower levels of birth control. Consequently, their children may not access good health services. Such children may register vey low birth weights and they are also quite likely to have stunted growth. What this translates to eventually is a continuous cycle of poverty in the next generation because the previous generation had no capability to care for their next of kin. (FAO, 2002)

As one can see, there is a vicious cycle that arises in both statements; the World Bank and Srinivasan this means that the higher the population, the lower the economic security. Part of this could be brought about by the fact that most children from poor families rarely have access to good nutrition and health infrastructures. Additionally, their education is also undermined. Consequently, they will be unable to meet productivity expectations placed upon them by society. This means that they will register low incomes and the poverty trend will persist in other generations. Such levels of poverty will imply that the macro economic policies in place will be undermined greatly yet they caused the difference in the first place. (World Resource Institute, 1992)

It is also worth noting that some of the views put forward by the World Bank hint towards the provision of sound macro economic policies in the process of reducing population growth and hence enhancing development. This is something that the statements made by Srinivasan did not focus on. The assumption behind statements made by World Bank is that the higher the population within any one country, the lower their level of security. Consequently, most of their labor market (which happens to be informal) will be undermined. In order for a society to boast of any level of social progress, there needs to be some sort of predictability in the social relations sector. High population growth rates undermine this and consequently impede efforts towards economic development.

Country

Population 2005

(millions)

Population projection (millions)

% Married women using contraception (modern methods)

GNI PPP per capita 2004 (US$)

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) [Children per Woman]

Replacement = 2.1

2025

2050

Afghanistan

29.9

50.3

81.9

4

-

6.8

Brazil

184.2

228.9

259.8

70

8,020

2.4

Burkina Faso

13.9

22.5

39.5

9

1,220

6.2

China

1,303.7

1,476.0

1,437.0

86

5,530

1.6

Congo (Dem Rep)

60.8

108.0

183.2

4

680

6.7

El Salvador

6.9

9.1

10.8

67

4,980

3.0

Iraq

28.8

44.7

63.7

25

-

5.1

Source: Population and Sustainability Network (2006): Population Growth; retrieved from file http://www.appg-popdevrh.org.uk/Publications/Population Hearings/Evidence/PSN evience.do accessed on 3rd June 2008

The table above is used to indicate the relationship between gross national income purchasing power parity and fertility rates. Brazil and China are among the countries with the lowest fertility rates. This means that their rate of population growth rate is also quite low. Their purchasing power parities (abbreviated as GNI PP) are among the highest in the list.

On the other hand, countries like Burkina Faso and the Democratic Republic of Congo have the highest fertility rates and this also coincides with low gross national income purchasing parities. These results indicate that there is indeed a link between population growth and economic development as asserted by both authors (World Resource Institute, 1992)

Conclusion

Both statements hold the view that high population growth rate undermines economic development. This means that they both adhere to the fact that high population growth rates cause a strain on the resources and this may spark civil unrest. The latter eventually undermines economic growth. Additionally, high population growth rate also undermines educational and health infrastructures and this impedes the economy. However, the converse argument is also true that poor health leads to low productivity hence low economic development. There is cycle created between these two factors as seen in statements made by Srinivasan and the World Bank. Lastly, the World Bank talks about labor as a macro economic policy issue; this is an issue that has not been addressed by the other author. According to the World Bank there is an underlying assumption that high levels of poverty undermine social patterns in relation to informal labor and this eventual impedes economic development. (World Resource Institute, 1992)

Reference:

Population and Sustainability Network (2006): Population Growth; retrieved from file http://www.appg-popdevrh.org.uk/Publications/Population Hearings/Evidence/PSN evidence.do accessed on 3rd June 2008

CIDA (1987): Sharing Our Future; Journal by the Ministry of Supply and Services Canada, Ottawa, p. 55, No. 3, Vol. 8

FAO (2002): Food and Agriculture; A Report by Unipub, Rome, July 2002

World Bank, (1992): Development and the Environment; Oxford University Press, p. 27

World Resource Institute (1992): World Resources; Oxford University Press; p. 76.

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If you had to name your kid after an african country what would it be?

My sister and I were studying the countries in africa and we were both joking on how we could name our kids after them so if you had to name your child (male or female) after an african country which would it be. Thanks! =]

Angola
Benin
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Central African Rep
Chad
Congo
Dem. Rep. Congo (Zaire)
Djibouti
Egypt
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea Bissau
Guinea
Ivory Coast
Kenya
Lesotho
Liberia
Libya
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger
Nigeria
Reunion
Rwanda
São Tomé and Principe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Africa
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Zambia
Zanzibar
Zimbabwe

South Africa

it is just straight up best. lol