As we reported yesterday, the Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee reinstated all Florida and Michigan delegates.

Each gets only half a vote, however, as a penalty for those states moving their primaries earlier than the party had approved (February 5).

Here’s a look at how this shapes up numerically:

• The move narrowed front-runner Sen. Barack Obama’s lead over rival Sen. Hillary Clinton, but not by a very significant margin. Based on the DNC’s decision, she received 87 pledged delegates to his 63.

• The committee’s ruling gave Clinton 105 pledged delegates from Florida and 69 from Michigan. Halved, that gives her a total of 87.

• Obama received 67 pledged delegates from Florida and 59 from Michigan. Halved, that amounts to 63 delegates.

• This leaves Obama ahead in overall delegates 2,051-1,877.

• The magic number needed to win is now 2,118.

If all of the delegates from Florida and Michigan had been granted a full vote, Hillary Clinton still would have trailed Barack Obama.

But this decision was greeted by most as an acceptable compromise - as it should be, as the DNC created this mess in the first place, and changing the rules back after changing them in the first place (and no one competed in the two states) would have been absurd. Saturday’s decision was the only logical outcome.

Will the results change the story? Absolutely not. So is it over, then? Not remotely. Clinton - unhappy with the Michigan result - can appeal any decision made by the committee, dragging the dispute all the way to Denver if she so chooses.

It’s sad but true in this convoluted system that the superdelegates must end this.

After the final three primaries are held (Puerto Rico today, Montana and South Dakota Tuesday), 86 more pledged delegates will be apportioned. Needing 63 of those to clinch the nomination, Obama won’t quite get there.

A new wave of superdelegate support (are you listening, Al Gore?) would put him over the top. Let’s hope it happens sooner rather than later.

Probably not enough to enable Sen. Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic party’s nomination for president, but any action by the party on the two rule-breaking states should benefit her more than Sen. Barack Obama.

The Democratic Party is likely to meet Florida and Michigan halfway when it comes to seating the delegates at the Democratic national convention.

Such a move may help Clinton close the delegate gap with Obama. However, it is still unlikely it would enable her to overtake him.

The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meets on Saturday in Washington to consider what to do with Florida and Michigan.

Both state parties were told that they would not be represented at all when the Democrats officially nominate a presidential candidate in Denver.

Not shockingly, Hillary Clinton and her supporters have been pressing for a compromise that seats as many delegates from the two states as possible.

About 600,000 people voted in Michigan and 1.7 million in Florida. Clinton won decisively in both states, though Obama and other candidates had their names taken off the Michigan ballot. He did appear on Florida’s ballot.

In addition to deciding how many (or any) Florida and Michigan delegates to seat, the rules committee must determine how the delegates allocated.

Various formulas have been suggested, most of which would give Clinton more delegates than Obama, who currently leads 1,978-1,780.

If Florida and Michigan weren’t counted in the race, 2,026 would clinch the nomination for Obama. The number rises if those states are seated.

Continue reading this article …

With four more superdelegates going his way yesterday (apparently), Sen. Barack Obama is now just 48 delegates away from the nomination.

He’s likely to win about half of the remaining 86 pledged delegates in three upcoming races, so the countdown to victory is on. Right?

Hold up. If you think the Democratic presidential race is going to end at that point, or soon after, or at all diplomatically, think again.

Sen. Hillary Clinton will do anything to win. Anything.

No angle will be unexplored, no argument left on the table. This race will have no graceful bow-out, no congenial exit strategy.

People expecting Hillary Clinton to go quietly are kidding themselves.

When she calls herself a fighter, she couldn’t be more right. But it’s as much for herself and her own legacy as it is for America. This race is like a WWE match, only unscripted. Somebody’s going to be left bloodied on the Democratic mat. No one’s walking away from the ring, head held high.

Comments and actions from camp Clinton in recent days prove beyond a doubt that the top priority is not the Democratic party. The attacks have ratcheted up, the talk about sexism and media bias reaching a fever pitch.

A former President of the United States is even espousing conspiracy theories.

There’s been talk of trying to energizing HRC’s supporters to finagle the vice president slot on the ticket, but the chances of her actually getting that dwindle with each hair-brained attack. This is about winning. Period.

Continue reading this article …

With the contentious and historic race for the Democratic presidential nomination all but over, the talk has shifted to the end game.

Sources say Barack Obama’s V.P. search is already underway - even as Hillary Clinton fights on in a race that isn’t technically over.

Insiders are saying that the latest round of calls to supporters from the Clinton inner circle reflect an underlying shift and an admission:

She has no intention of dropping out, but while the Democratic primary battle isn’t over (at least for another week), the war has been lost.

It also raises the question, what are Clinton’s terms of surrender?

Bill Clinton, for his part, has a clear idea - in the former President’s opinion, she has earned nothing short of the first offer to be Obama’s V.P., according to those close to the Clinton camp.

Bill “is pushing real hard for this to happen,” a friend tells Time.

Even if Hillary Clinton is not on the ticket, her huge wins in the Kentucky and West Virginia primaries significantly cut his lead in the popular vote - and significantly boosted her leverage going forward.

Winning 47 percent of the popular vote (more if you count Michigan and Florida) is pretty impressive - and gives her serious bragging rights.

What does that entail logistically for the Barack Obama campaign?

Continue reading this article …

Conventional wisdom says the contentious battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will go all the way to the August convention.

But Democratic National Committee chairman Dean wants the delegate mess over well before that, possibly before the 10 remaining primaries are even done.

The Washington Times‘ Donald Lambro believes it’s likely.

The scenario Howard Dean and fellow party leaders fear most is a bitter political floor fight in Denver that will divide their own party and send a message to the country that the Democrats can’t even govern … themselves!

His plan calls on remaining undeclared superdelegates (350 or so) to break their neutrality sooner rather than later, providing enough votes to give someone the 2,025-delegate magic number needed to clinch the nomination.

“There is no point in waiting,” Howard Dean said recently, adding that he has been in the process of “talking to a fairly significant number of — by and large — nonaligned people about how we might resolve this.”

Howard Dean hopes the rest of the superdelegates will follow his advice and declare their preference during the coming weeks and effectively end the race.

If Barack Obama can hold his lead, as is likely, he will be close to 2,000 delegates, allowing the superdelegates to possibly him over the top.

As for the Florida and Michigan quagmire, Dean is making it clear that once the nomination race is all but over, there will be a deal in place to seat both of the delegations under a proportional formula … still to be worked out.

Whatever Dean has in mind, it had better happen fast.

While this has been going on, John McCain has tapped strategists and fund raisers, uniting the party and basking in his U.S. personal biography tour.

It may take months before the Democrats entirely get their act together, and how unified it will be remains a huge question.

Meanwhile, John McCain has actually pulled even or ahead in polls, and a once vulnerable GOP believes it can defeat a divided opposition.

With Florida and Michigan delegates in limbo and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama still fighting, worried Dems are looking to Howard Dean.

They’d better not hold their breath.

The former Vermont governor has tried to carve a neutral path so far, and while his efforts are admirable, something’s gotta give eventually. His take on it:

“I have to chuckle a little bit - the people who are complaining that I’m not taking a stronger role - when you drill down on that a little, I see what you mean. You’d like me to be a strong leader and adopt your point of view and ram it through the DNC. I’m not going to do that - for either side. There are going to be supporters on both sides that are mad at me. I’m going to play this one by the rules.”

Which… pretty much leaves us where we were all along. Man. What happened to the hard-charging Howard Dean? While it would be great theater, there can’t be a second ballot scenario? The longer this drags on, the worse it gets.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean may be treading too carefully.

Meanwhile, Rep. Bart Stupak of Michigan proposed a plan earlier that would take into account the January primary and the total popular vote nationwide.

Under the proposal, Clinton would receive 47 delegates, while Obama would be awarded 36 delegates based on votes awarded to “Uncommitted.”

The rest of the Michigan delegates would then be divided according to nationwide popular vote after all primaries are completed. Right now, that would give Obama a slight edge, as he’s won 2.6 percent more total votes nationally.

Obama leads Clinton in delegates, 1,626 to 1,486, but neither will win the 2,025 needed to capture the nomination via primaries. Superdelegates will therefore determine the Democratic nominee, be it later or … much later.

Dean proposed having superdelegates weigh in by July 1 so the party can rally behind a candidate before the convention, beginning August 25 in Denver.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, a neutral superdelegate himself, said Tuesday that he would support such a proposal. We’ll see.

The next battleground is the Pennsylvania primary, which is scheduled for April 22. Clinton is expected to win, although Obama is closing hard.

Indiana and North Carolina, termed the new Pennsylvanias because they may ultimately tip the balance of superdelegate support, follow on May 6.

In February, Newsweek’s Eleanor Clift examined a scenario that seemed absurd, and maybe still is. But gridlock and tension between Democratic Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton persists, and the longer that’s the case …

Consider the fact that above all else, Democrats want to win in 2008, and the more these two tear each other apart, the more difficult it may be to triumph over John McCain. Or so the theory, held by many, would have it.

The new rallying cry: Al Gore on the second ballot.

The last time a political convention went to a second ballot was 1952, but this year anything is impossible. The superdelegates, who will ultimately play into the decision, are not bound to any candidate and can do what they want.

Moreover, delegates won in primaries go to the convention with a pledge of support for one candidate, but one of the biggest myths of the process is that delegates are bound to follow that pledge beyond the first ballot.

Therefore, if the first ballot is conducted and neither candidate has the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination, another name could be introduced.

All it would take is asingle  delegate perhaps from Tennessee, or any other state, for that matter, to raise an official point of order, and with the backing of five other state delegations, the name of Al Gore could be put into play.

Gore would surely be tempted - with the convention ending August 28, that’s just two months on the trail. By the time Election Day arrives, the honeymoon phase of the new Al Gore 2008 campaign may not even have worn off.

Of course, this also presumes Barack Obama would be his running mate (the odds of Gore taking Hillary Clinton as his V.P. are even slimmer than … anything else in this post ever happening), and that gets pretty dicey.

A Gore-Obama ticket would be formidable, yes - strong on national security and experience, while still embodying change - but many Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton voters (and the candidates themselves) would be hurt.

The last thing the Democrats want would be to face a Barack Obama / Chuck Hagel / Michael Bloomberg independent ticket. That would be political theater for the ages, but probably sweep McCain into the White House.

The Democratic party faces three clear options for settling the quagmire of the narred, potentially disenfranchised Florida and Michigan delegates.

The problem according to Bloomberg News’ Albert R. Hunt, is that these three choices range from cataclysmic to problematic:

1. The Clinton forces muscle the votes on the party’s credentials committee and seat the full slate of Michigan and Florida delegates, 366 in all, based on the results of January’s primaries. Given her wide victories in these contests that did not count, she would pick up a large number of delegates. Many, including Nancy Pelosi, have called it unacceptable that delegations which broke the rules decide the outcome of this historic race. A large number of Barack Obama supporters might be (justifiably) inclined to walk out if a Michigan primary in which “Uncommitted” won 40 percent of the vote factored into the nomination.

2. Michigan and Florida are denied seats at the convention, or the party could pick its own representatives from those states. Even though Florida and Michigan broke the rules and that justifies this move, it would be a disaster. Stiffing crucial states (44 combined electoral votes in November that John McCain will already be in good position to capture) would be political suicide.

3. The party can require new elections in both Michigan and Florida. This is as controversial and complicated. Unfortunately, it also looks inevitable.

The Barack Obama campaign would love Michigan and Florida caucuses, where they would be more successful because they are better organized.

The Hillary Clinton camp wants primaries for Florida and Michigan, which would be costly and for which no one seems willing to foot the bill.

The Democratic National Committee could foot the bill for the re-votes, but in a display many are calling incompetence on the part of chairman Howard Dean, it is lagging in fundraising and doesn’t have the money.

Perhaps the only logical course of action is for convention chairman Pelosi and her party leaders to take this out of the hands of Clinton, Obama and Dean to designate an arbitrator or small committee to resolve the matter. Quickly.

Former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell would be an ideal choice, as every such panel he’s headed has been lauded as credible and successful.

Other respected figures who aren’t in either camp might include former Vice President Al Gore or former President Jimmy Carter.

Despite our belief that these states broke the rules, therefore should be barred and are simply adding hysteria by demanding a do-ever, this is not going to happen and we all need to come to grips with it. Someone fair must settle it.

The only practical solution is some combination of caucuses and primaries, fewer delegates than slated but a respectable percentage, with the two campaigns sharing the cost with the state parties and private donors.

The clock is ticking. The party leadership needs to get a plan in place quickly, if at all, lest we hand these states over to John McCain early.

As party officials in Florida and Michigan scramble to get their delegates seated after royally lousing up and getting them banned in the first place, a key player has been entirely overlooked by mainstream media outlets.

Flying under the radar, a candidate no one is talking about drew an impressive 237,762 votes in Michigan, good for 40 percent of the primary’s tally.

Despite little name recognition and his name suggesting a lackadaisical air, the numbers don’t lie - and Hillary Clinton should be looking over her shoulder …

Hillary Clinton won the Jan. 15 Michigan primary with 55 percent, as this CNN table shows, but Uncommitted surprised pundits and came in a strong second.

This kind of showing despite limited resources and minimal effort suggests a strong grass-roots network of support for the upstart - and that the Democratic party may not be certain about co-frontrunners Clinton and Barack Obama.

With the magic number of 2,025 delegates still out of their reach, the possibility of an Uncommitted groundswell at the national convention is growing.

“I didn’t even campaign in Michigan, and 40 percent of people say I passed the Commander-in-Chief test!” Uncommitted told CNN’s Anderson Cooper.

The insurgent pleaded his case to voters, insisting that his relatively unknown status won’t discourage him from drawing new supporters.

“Look, if Jon Stewart can be a fake newsman that gets viewers, I can be a fake candidate that gets votes,” Uncommitted argued.

If Barack Obama is the candidate of change, and Hillary Clinton a candidate of pure evil, Uncommitted may seek to portray himself something in between: the candidate of moderate, quasi-corrupt adjustment.

Asked by Cooper about his health care plan - a critical issue for many voters - Uncommitted replied: “I’m not ready to take on that series of issues yet.”

As for his Iraq war stance, Uncommitted said: “I can’t promise anything.”

Such political views have established Uncommitted as a serious threat in the under-30, white, black and Hispanic single male demographic.

In a potentially calamitous turn of events, officials in Florida and Michigan are dying to have Democratic delegates seated at the party’s national convention.

Both states’ primaries were held in January but did not count. The DNC warned all states not to move their primary and caucus dates any earlier than Super Tuesday, February 5. Michigan and Florida called the DNC’s bluff. Only it wasn’t a bluff.

Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are in such a tight race that the magic number of 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination appears out of reach.

If Florida and Michigan, with 366 delegates between them, were to suddenly count, their delegates just might put either candidate over the top.

The reasons it is ridiculous to apportion delegates based on the January results or hold new elections - both of which have been proposed - are:

• Rules are rules. A February 5 race would have been plenty early, but Florida and Michigan moved up even further despite being told in no uncertain terms that this would be the result! Now what? They’re sorry?

• Obama did not run in those races. Clinton didn’t either, but in January, she enjoyed far greater name recognition in states where Barack Obama didn’t show up. He wasn’t even officially on the ballot in Michigan.

• Do-overs are moot at this stage. If you allocated delegates based on the January elections, Clinton would win 60 percent. Nowadays, Obama gets 45-48 percent at worst (see Texas and Ohio), shrinking the margin.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will point plenty of fingers over this mess.

By our calculations, two 55-45 percent wins would give Hillary a 201-165 edge in delegates, narrowing the deficit slightly, but not changing the math or the story.

Thus, the principal result of such an exercise is collateral damage.

There’s a reason Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican and a candidate for the V.P. nomination under John McCain (at least in our view), says he wants Democratic votes in the Sunshine State counted. It’s not because he’s a nice guy.

If Michigan and Florida scheduled new primaries or caucuses, a Democratic race already bordering on mass hysteria would officially attain that status.

Millions of dollars would be spent the states and party to hold the elections - with Clinton and Obama spending millions more tearing each other limb from limb. All while Crist and the Republicans smile as they sit and watch.

Hillary’s garbage 3 a.m. ad is proof positive of Democrats doing the Republicans’ work for them. Attack ads on national security readiness? Sparring on personal integrity? The longer this goes on, the better the GOP looks.

If this continues, whoever wins this historic Democratic race will emerge weaker than John McCain. The only question is how much weaker.

Finding the right way to arrive at a winner is a challenge, no doubt, but the answer is not letting Florida and Michigan back in the mix.